Confidence in Government

Canadian leaders who have served as prime minister for extended periods of time rarely leave office on positive terms. Lacking the constraint of term limits, they typically don’t leave until they have become unpopular. Jean Chrétien served for ten years before dissension within his own Liberal Party caused him to resign rather than face an official challenge to his status as party leader. Stephen Harper, needing less than four more months to reach a full decade as prime minister, failed in his 2015 bid for reelection as his Conservative Party lost nearly 38 percent of the parliamentary seats it had previously held.

What causes once-popular leaders to lose the support of those they profess to serve?

On the morning of Monday, January 6, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau walked to a small lectern in front of his Rideau Cottage residence in Ottawa to deliver a speech confirming that he would be resigning from both the office of prime minister and the leadership of the Liberal Party as soon as a replacement could be determined.

Justin Trudeau’s first term as prime minister began in 2015, when his Liberal Party won a majority in the House of Commons. Trudeau then led minority governments after the 2019 and 2021 elections. He was able to navigate the challenges of minority leadership—under which non-confidence motions often threaten the government with dissolution—by establishing deals with the New Democratic Party (NDP). Trudeau would support several NDP initiatives, and, in return, the NDP would support his government whenever it might face a non-confidence vote in Parliament.

Trudeau’s Loss of Confidence Inevitable?

But it was not to last. As support for the Liberal government fell in the polls, his own party’s Members of Parliament began openly questioning Trudeau’s ability to lead both the party and the country. At a caucus meeting in October, following the loss of seats in both Montreal and Toronto, 24 MPs signed a letter asking Trudeau to resign.

Following the November 2024 election of Donald Trump in the United States, the prospect of increased tariffs brought the state of Canada’s economy back to the foreground. The government’s 2024 Federal Economic Statement promised to be a point of contention and intrigue. The projected deficit had been promised not to exceed $40 billion. Just a few hours before the statement’s December 16 release, Finance Minister—and Liberal MP—Chrystia Freeland resigned, publishing a letter detailing significant concerns with Trudeau’s handling of spending and describing some expenditures as “gimmicks” meant to buy support from voters in preparation for another election.

Freeland’s resignation, along with the revelation that the deficit had far surpassed the promised $40-billion cap—reaching an eye-popping $61.9 billion—resulted in renewed calls for resignation. Over the next several weeks, an increasing number of Liberal MPs publicly demanded that the prime minister resign. The Liberal caucuses from Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada formally called for Trudeau to step down. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, who had enabled Trudeau’s minority government to survive three non-confidence votes, promised Canadians that he would now vote to trigger an election.

Like Jean Chrétien before him, lack of confidence from his own political party led to Trudeau’s decision to resign rather than face a contested leadership race.

Why Do Leaders Fail?

Is loss of confidence the inevitable fate of any leader who holds office for a significant period of time? Politicians often gain popularity and power by attacking whoever currently holds the seat of power they desire for themselves. In theory, the democratic process guarantees the election of a leader approved by the people—someone who holds the confidence of the people. Sometimes campaign promises are fulfilled, causing a leader’s popularity to grow during his or her first few years in office. But opinions change over time, popularity is fleeting, and confidence is lost, leading the people to seek another to serve as leader.

Trudeau’s case is fascinating in that the issue leading to his resignation was a budgetary concern. During his first election campaign as party leader, back in 2015, opponents attacked him as naïve regarding national budgets. Trudeau’s opposition highlighted an offhand comment he had made, in which he said that “the budget will balance itself.” Apparently, this philosophy was good enough for three elections over the course of ten years—a longevity that would make most world leaders envious. But this same philosophy now seems to be a decisive reason for Canadians’ lack of confidence in their prime minister.

Challengers in any election cycle have an advantage in that they do not have a track record in the office they seek, while the incumbent has a record that can be dissected and condemned. Many seeking to unseat current leaders have used some form of this argument: Are you better off now than when they took office? Far too many voters fall into the trap of believing that electing the right official will solve all of their problems. It is a natural tendency to look at our own situation and—rather than asking What did I did do to get myself here?—ask, If I elect you, how will you fix this?

It appears that Canada is soon to have a general election, one in which the electorate will select a new leader to guide the nation. Polls now suggest that this leader won’t come from the Liberal Party of Trudeau, but more likely from the opposition’s Conservative Party. But how much of a difference will a new leader make? Will a new prime minister succeed in making positive, systematic change?

Everlasting Confidence

What Canada—like every other nation of the world—desperately needs from its leaders is a call, both personal and national, to turn to the commandments and principles outlined by God in the Bible, which lead to success, abundance, and stronger relationships. The continued rejection of these principles has caused us to falter, both as a collective society and—in many cases—as individuals.

The words recorded in the first chapter of Isaiah, written to a people who had forgotten their Creator, should serve as a strong admonition for Canada’s populace, as well as those of many countries around the world: “Wash yourselves, make yourselves clean; put away the evil of your doings from before My eyes. Cease to do evil, learn to do good; seek justice, rebuke the oppressor; defend the fatherless, plead for the widow” (Isaiah 1:16–17).

The Bible prophesies of a time when right principles will be taught by an honest and fair government—after Jesus Christ returns to earth and brings the government with which He will rule humanity for a thousand years (Revelation 20:4). That government will at first be met with skepticism by some (Zechariah 14:16–19), but confidence will grow as that perfect Leader will teach the people His perfect way of life—one not swayed by the fickle nature of public opinion. God speed that day.