Groundhog Day - history and warn[m]ing

First, let's consider the origin of our peculiar annual curiosity about this one groundhog from Pennsylvania. I think the history behind this observance was very well explained by NPR commentator, Garrison Keillor, in his February 2, 2009 radio program The Writer's Almanac:

"Today we celebrate three holidays, all of them from the same source. February 2nd is a 'cross-quarter' day in the solar calendar, which means that it falls exactly between a solstice and an equinox. It's the ancient Celtic celebration of Imbolc, in honor of Brigit, the goddess of fire, poetry, healing, and childbirth. Brigit brings the healing power of the sun back to the world on Imbolc, a day that carries the first promise of spring. Imbolc comes from the Old Irish i mbolg, meaning 'in the belly,' because this is the time when ewes became pregnant to deliver spring lambs. The Christians took over the Celtic celebration and made February 2nd into a Christian holiday, Candlemas Day. Candlemas Day celebrates the presentation of Jesus at the Temple exactly 40 days after Christmas. There are many old sayings about today – about the emergence of animals from their winter dens and omens that predict the season ahead. One English saying goes:

"If Candlemas day be fair and bright, Winter will have another flight. But if Candlemas day bring clouds and rain, Winter is gone and won't come again.

"There was a tradition in many European countries of watching animals – especially badgers – to see how they acted on this day. If they returned to their dens, it meant that there was still a long winter ahead. German immigrants in Pennsylvania found that there weren't a lot of badgers in America, but there were a lot of groundhogs, so the holiday evolved into Groundhog Day. The first reference to Groundhog Day is from 1841, in the diary of a storekeeper in Morgantown, Pennsylvania. He wrote: 'Last Tuesday, the 2nd, was Candlemas day, the day on which, according to the Germans, the Groundhog peeps out of his winter quarters and if he sees his shadow he pops back for another six weeks' nap, but if the day be cloudy he remains out, as the weather is to be moderate.'"

As surprised as we now might be about its non-Christian origin, furry Phil might be alerting us to something even more critical – global warming. In recent years, environmentalists have noticed a disturbing change in the groundhog's shadow observance. An article on the National Wildlife Federation website reports, "Dr. Doug Inkley, wildlife biologist with the National Wildlife Federation, found that in the first 75 years of the 20th century, Phil cast no shadow only four times, which according to folklore meant an early end to winter. But in just the last 25 years of the century, Phil cast no shadow eight times, alerting us that winter was coming to an early end, a six-fold increase!

Although Phil's forecasting can't be considered credible, the real science from many fields of scientific inquiry demonstrates that rapid climate change from global warming pollution is over-whelming. The resulting impacts on wildlife are sobering, from drowning polar bears in the Arctic to imperiled coral reefs in the world's oceans. In fact, the United Nations is releasing a report on Groundhog Day [2007] in which scientists from around the world concur that global warming is an urgent threat that must be dealt with" (emphases mine).

Yes, we have many concerns for the survival of our planet (let alone our economy). I think you would benefit from reading or listening to Jeffrey Fall's commentary Ominous Weather Ahead.